I am an economist at the Federal Reserve Board. My research covers monetary policy, macroeconomics, inflation, interest rates, and forecasting. This site hosts live analysis extending that research, along with my CV and links to my publications.
Data & Analysis
Monetary Policy Expectations
Market-implied policy rate paths and FOMC surprise pass-through to asset prices.
Inflation Forecast
Two independent core CPI models — a Bayesian Phillips curve and a survey-expectations Phillips curve — updated as new data arrives.
Equilibrium Real Interest Rate (r*)
The domestic r* estimate against Laubach-Williams, SPF-, SEP-, and TIPS-implied benchmarks, and the realized real fed funds rate.
Resource Utilization and Risk
Output-gap estimates from CBO, a structural macroeconomic model, and an unobserved-components model, alongside recession and unemployment risk.
Yield Curve Tracker
Treasury yields, term premiums, and long-run rate expectations, updated daily.
Other websites