The inflation-adjusted interest rate consistent with the economy running at full strength over the long run — often called r*.
UC r* is from a compact Unobserved Components model estimated by economist Michael Kiley — the same model behind the Unobserved Components output gap on the Resource Utilization and Risk page. It's shown alongside four independent benchmarks — Holston‑Laubach‑Williams (HLW), an SPF‑implied rate (from the Philadelphia Fed's professional-forecaster survey), an SEP‑implied rate (from the FOMC's own longer‑run projections), and the TIPS 5y5y forward real yield (a market-based estimate) — plus the ex post real federal funds rate, shown to provide historical context for periods in which policy was relatively restrictive or accommodative.
UC r* based on M.T. Kiley (2020), “What Can the Data Tell Us about the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?,” International Journal of Central Banking, 16(3), 181–209.
Holston‑Laubach‑Williams (HLW) from Holston, Laubach & Williams (2017, updated 2023), “Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Data refreshed —
Equilibrium real interest rate: estimates vs. the ex post real rate, 1954–present
Percent, quarterly — grey bars are NBER recessions
UC r* and HLW are one-sided (filtered, real-time) estimates, so no uncertainty band is shown — a smoothed/two-sided band isn't a real-time-consistent comparison. SPF-implied is annual (asked once a year); SEP-implied updates four times a year at FOMC meetings; TIPS 5y5y is a daily market series averaged to quarterly. Each line's own gaps reflect its own native frequency, not missing data.